This article mentions the Nobel award winning Daniel Kahneman and his award winning book Thinking, Fast and Slow and how our inherent biases cloud and affect our judgement notably in this case “The Planning Fallacy”.
The author tells us how the Planning Fallacy leads us to overly optimistic and unrealistic estimates because we fail to account or plan for unpredictable yet probable events.

One problem he doesn’t mention is what I call our failure to recognize and account for the “spaces in between”. While is is at time possible (possible not necessarily probable) to continuously work on a task uninterrupted what happens when you complete that task and get ready for the next task in your queue of tasks. The get ready part, whether mental or physical or mental takes time. We need to learn how to account for the time in-between tasks too.

Taking into consideration the Planning Fallacy while an important rule is not the Golden Rule of Estimating in my book. Years ago Bob Kovacs introduced me to “The Golden Rule of Estimating” according to Richardson Engineering Services General Construction Estimating Standards which is…

—“Consider not only the cubic foot, cubic yard, lineal foot, square foot, pound or ton but all of the complicating conditions encountered in putting the materials in place.”—

The Golden Rule of Being a Contractor

All contractors make the mistake of underestimating the time required for a project. A look at how contractors can use the planning fallacy to get paid more and start providing better estimates.

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J. Jerrald Hayes
Primus Inter Pares at Paradigm Projects, Ltd.
I am an architectural woodworker and general contractor turned IT, Business and Project Management consultant, software developer wannabe senior division triathlete and ski racer, Yankee fan and founder of ParadigmProjects.com, 360 Difference Mac4Construction.com,iOS4Construction.com and now TheBuildingAndRemodelingWiki.com too.

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